ສະບາຍດີທຸກຄົນ! ຕອນເລີ້ມຕົ້ນຂະນ້ອຍຢາກຂຽນບົດຂຽນນີ້ຍາມວັນພັກທີ່ພານມາແຕ່ວ່າຂະນ້ອຍຄາຍ້າຍອອກຈາກບ້ານຢູ່ມະຫາວິທະຍາໄລ. ຍ້ອນວ່າພະຍາດໂຄວິດ-19ໂຮງຮຽນປຽນເປັນໂຮງຮຽນອອນລາຍ. ດັ່ງນັ້ນຂະນ້ອຍບໍ່ມີເຫດຜົນຈຶ່ງຈາຍຄ່າເຊົ່າໃຫ້ເຮືອນທີ່ບໍ່ອາໄສຢູ່.
ແລ້ວຂະນ້ອຍຢາກຄິດວ່າບົດຂຽນນີ້ສຳຄັນຫລາຍເພາະວ່າມັນຊິເວົ້າເລື່ອງການສຳຫຼວດຜົນລະເມືອງປີ 2020. ຜວກທ່ານອາດຈະໄດ້ຍິນກຽວກັບການສຳຫຼວດຜົນລະເມືອງປີ 2020 ແລະເປັນຫຍັງເຮົາຕ້ອງຕອບມັນແລ້ວ. ສ່ວນຫລາຍຄົນທີ່ຊວນໃປຕອບມັນອາທິບາຍວ່າຜົນລັບຂອງມັນຈະມີຜົນຕໍ່ຮັບທຶນຈາກລັດທະບານແຫ່ງສະຫະລັດ. ແມ່ນແທ້ແລ້ວ ຫາກທ່ານກວດເບີ່ງຕະຕະລາງລາຍການທີທຳອິດໃນລາຍງານຂອງສຳນັກງານສຳຫຼວດພົນລະເມືອງແຫ່ງສະຫະລັດນີ້ ທ່ານອາດຈະເຫັນວ່າການສຳຫຼວດຜົນລະເມືອງມີຜົນຕໍ່ປະມານ 700,000,000,000 ໂດລາ! ຕະຕະລາງລາຍການນີ້ບອກວ່າໃຜໄຊ້ຜົນລັບການສຳຫຼວດພົນລະເມືອງແລະທຶນຈາຍໃຫ້ຫຍັງໃນປີ 2015 ເຊົ່ນໂຄງການສຸກຄະພາບ (healthcare programs like Medicaid/Medicare), ທືນຊື້ເຄື່ອງກິນ (SNAP, also called food stamps), ແລະທືນການສຶກສາ (Federal Pell Grants for higher education) ເປັນຕົ້ນ. ເພື່ອຮຽນຮູ້ກຽວກັບໃຊ້ການສຳຫຼວດຜົນລະເມືອງຢ່າງໃດຍາມຄຳນວນທຶນໃຫ້ Medicaid, ຂໍເບີ່ງບົດຂຽນນີ້.
ດຽວນີ້ຂະນ້ອຍຢາກສຳຫຼວດເຫດຜົນອັນໜຶ່ງອີກໜ້ອຍໜຶ່ງ. ທ່ານຮູ້ບໍ່, ຈຳນວນສະມາຊິກສະພາຜູ້ແທນຣາສດອນແຕ່ລະລັດອິງຕາມຈຳນວນປະຊາຊົນ? ເພາະສະນັ້ນຈຳນວນສະມາຊິກສະພາຜູ້ແທນຣາສດອນແຕ່ລະລັດອິງຕາມຈຳນວນປະຊາຊົນທີ່ການສຳຫຼວດຜົນລະເມືອງໄດ້ນັບ. ຈຳນວນຜູ້ແທນທັງໝົດແມ່ນ 435 ຄົນ. ແຕ່ລະລັດໄດ້ຮັບຜູ້ແທນ 1 ຄົນແລ້ວ. ເວລາເອົາຜູ້ແທນ 385 ຄົນທີ່ເຫລືອໃຫ້ລັດເຮົາໃຊ້ສູດຮ້ອງວ່າ Method of Equal Proportions. ຕອນເລີ້ມໃຊ້ສູດນີ້, ຈົ່ງຄຳນວນ “Priority Value” ກ່ອນ. “Priority Value” ແມ່ນ 1/sqrt(n(n-1)) ຄູນຈຳນວນປະຊາຊົນແຕ່ລະລັດ; sqrt ແປ່ວ່າຮາກຂັ້ນສອງ ແລະ n ແມ່ນ 2 ຫາ 60. ຫລັງຈາກຄຳນວນ “Priority Value” ຈັດມັນຕາມລຳດັບຢ່າງລົງໄປແລະເອົາຜູ້ແທນໃຫ້ລັດຕາມນັ້ນຈົນທຸກຜູ້ແທນ 385 ຄົນໄດ້ໄປແລ້ວ. ຖ້າທ່ານຢາກຮຽນຮູ້ເປັນຫຍັງເຮົາໃຊ້ສູດນີ້ຂະນ້ອຍແນະນຳວ່າໄປນີ້ກ່ອນໄປບ່ອນອື່ນໆ.
ວິເຄາະມື້ນີ້ເຮັດໂດຍພາສາການຂຽນໂປແກຼມ R (ຂະນ້ອຍຝາກບົດການຂຽນໂປແກຼມໄວ້ນີ້ບໍ່ໄດ້, ຕິດຕໍ່ຂະນ້ອຍຖ້າທ່ານຢາກບົດການຂຽນໂປແກຼມເພື່ອກວດເບີ່ງຫຼືໃຊ້ຕາມຄວາມຢາກຮູ້ຢາກເຫັນ) ແລະ ໂດຍຂໍ້ມຸນຂອງການສຳຫຼວດຜົນລະເມືອງປີ 2010 ທີ່ NHGIS ຈັດຫາໃຫ້. ຍ້ອນວ່າຈຳນວນປະຊະຊົນຂອງບາງເຜົ່ານ້ອຍໂພດ, ບາງລັດຊ່ອນໄວ້ຄາດຄະເນຈຳນວນປະຊະຊົນຂອງເຜົ່ານັ້ນ. ສະນັ້ນຂະນ້ອຍແທນ 0 ໃຫ້ຄາດຄະເນທີ່ຊ່ອນໄວ້.
ເວລາກວດເບີ່ງຕະຕະລາງລາຍການຢູ່ລົງທ່ານຊິເຫັນມີຫຍັງເກີດມາສົມມຸດວ່ານັບຜົນລະເມືອງຂາດຄົນທີ່ບົ່ງບອກວ່າເປັນຄົນເອເຊຍຕາເວັນອອກສຽງໄຕ້ (ຄົນທີ່ບົ່ງບອກວ່າເປັນເຜົ່າລາວ, ເຜົ່າໄທ, ເຜົ່າມົ້ງ, ເຜົ່າວຽດນາມ, ແລະເຜົ່າກຳປູເຈຍ), ສົມມຸດວ່ານັບຜົນລະເມືອງຂາດຄົນທີ່ບົ່ງບອກວ່າເປັນຄົນເອເຊຍ, ແລະ ສົມມຸດວ່ານັບຜົນລະເມືອງຂາດຄົນທີ່ບົ່ງບອກວ່າເປັນຄົນເຜົ່ານ້ອຍ.
ໃນດ້ານຊ້າຍຂອງຕະຕະລາງລາຍການຢູ່ທາງລຸ່ມແມ່ນການແຈກຢາຍຜູ້ແທນໂດຍຈຳນວນປະຊະຊົນທີ່ການສຳຫຼວດຜົນລະເມືອງປີ 2010 ໄດ້ນັບ. ຖັນຢູ່ທາງຂວານັ້ນບອກວ່າຈຳນວນຜູ້ແທນປຽນແບບໃດສົມມຸດວ່າບາງຄົນບໍ່ຕອບການສຳຫຼວດຜົນລະເມືອງ. ອຸບປະມາວ່າຖັນທີ່ສຸດທ້າຍສະແດງວ່າລັດຄາລິຟໍເນຍຈະເສຍຜູ້ແທນ 11 ຄົນຖ້າຄົນເຜົ່ານ້ອຍບໍ່ຕອບການສຳຫຼວດຜົນລະເມືອງ. ດັ່ງນັ້ນບາງລັດເສຍອິດທິຜົນ. ຄົນທີ່ມີສິດທິອອກສຽງເລືອກຕັ້ງໂດຍສະເພາະເສຍອິດທິພົນຫາກຄົນບໍ່ຕອບສຳຫຼວດຜົນລະເມືອງ. ຂະນ້ອຍສະຫລຸບວ່າທຸກຄົນຄວນຕອບການສຳຫຼວດຜົນລະເມືອງປີ 2020 ເພື່ອເປັນຕົວຢ່າງຖືກຕ້ອງ.
ທ່ານຕອບການສຳຫຼວດຜົນລະເມືອງປີ 2020 ໄດ້ອອນລາຍນີ້ (ພາສາອັງກິດ, ພາສາລາວ). ທຸກຄຳຕອບຖືກປົກປ້ອງແລະເປັນຄວາມລັບສຸດຍອດ. ເຫລືອແຕ່ອາທິດດຽວເພື່ອຕອບການສຳຫຼວດຜົນລະເມືອງປີ 2020!
ຖ້າທ່ານມີຄຳຖາມຫຼືຄຳແນະນຳກຽວກັບອັນໃດ, ຂະນ້ອຍຂໍບອກມາໂລດ. ຂໍຂອບໃຈທີ່ອ່ານບົດຂຽນນີ້. ພໍ້ກັນໃໝ່ເທື່ອໜ້າ.
Hello everyone! When I started, I had planned to write this post over the past weekend, but I was caught up with moving out of my apartment at the university. Because of COVID-19, the university has switched to online learning so I don’t really have a reason to continue paying rent for a place in which I don’t currently live.
Anyways, I think this post is important because it will discuss the 2020 Census. You’ve probably already heard about the 2020 Census and why we should respond to it. Those who want us to respond often explain that results from the census has implications towards federal funding. Indeed, if you check out Table 1 in this report published by the Census Bureau, you’ll find that results from the census influence about $700 billion! This publication is meant to report who uses results from the census and where the money goes in 2015. For example, programs such as Medicaid/Medicare, SNAP (aka food stamps), and the Federal Pell Grant all use the census to inform their funding decisions. If you would like to learn more about how the census is used in determining Medicaid funding, check out this article here.
For now, I would like to do a bit of exploration regarding another reason to fill out the census. Did you know that the number of representatives belonging to each state in the House of Representatives depends on the population? Therefore, the number of representatives belonging to each state in the House of Representatives depends on the population count in the census. The total number of representatives is 435. Each state receives 1 representative automatically. When assigning the remaining 385 representatives to the states, we use a formula called the Method of Equal Proportions. First, calculate what’s called the “Priority Value.” The “Priority Value” is equal to 1/sqrt(n(n-1)) times the state’s population, where sqrt means to take the square root and n takes values from 2 to 60. After calculating the “Priority Value,” arrange them in decreasing order and assign representatives to the states in that order until all 385 representatives have been assigned. If you would like to learn about why we use this formula, then I suggest going here before consulting other sources.
Today’s analysis uses the statistical programming language R (seems like I can’t provide the R code here, contact me if you’d like a copy of the code) and data from the 2010 Census, provided by NHGIS. Because the population for some groups are too small, some states will suppress the estimates for those groups’ population. In that case, I will treat those estimates as 0.
In the table above, you’ll find what happens when counting the population without those who indicate they are of Southeast Asian descent (those indicating Lao, Thai, Hmong, Vietnamese, or Cambodian descent), without those who indicate they are of Asian descent, and without those who indicate they minority individuals (i.e. non-White). On the left of the table below is the distribution of representatives using the population as counted in the 2010 Census. The columns to the right of that reports how the number of representatives changes depending on which group is omitted from the census. For example, the last column shows that California loses 11 representatives if the minority did not respond to the census. Hence, some states lose influence. Those with the right to vote especially lose influence if the census is left unanswered.
You can respond to the census online here (English, Lao). All responses are protected and confidential. There is only one week left to respond to the 2020 Census!
If you have any questions or suggestions about anything, please let me know. Thank you for reading. See you next time!
Citations:
- Hlavac, Marek (2018). stargazer: Well-Formatted Regression and Summary Statistics Tables. R package version 5.2.2. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=stargazer
- Hotchkiss, Marisa, and Jessica Phelan. “Uses of Census Bureau Data in Federal Funds Distribution.” The United States Census Bureau, 11 Oct. 2017, www.census.gov/library/working-papers/2017/decennial/census-data-federal-funds.html
- Snyder, Laura, and Robin Rudowitz. “Medicaid Financing: How Does It Work and What Are the Implications?” KFF, 21 Dec. 2016, www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/medicaid-financing-how-does-it-work-and-what-are-the-implications/
Kyle Kole, Ph.D. 